Out on the ledge prediction. • Nxtbook Media

Out on the ledge prediction.

Written by Nxtbook Media

Ready for this?

The mobile share of digital consumption will be somewhere between 3 and 50% of all web pages within three years.

Huh? What kind of prediction is that?

It all started a couple weeks ago with a Quantcast report that pegged the percentage of pages consumed on mobile devices to be around 1.26% in the US. The report also predicted we’d be above 2% by year’s end. In other words, it IS growing and it’s growing fast. But when you start at zilch, growth takes time.

Meanwhile, Steve Smith’s headline reads Mobile Will Overtake Desktop Web in Three Years. His story references a recent report by Gartner. Except, the report doesn’t speculate about usage at all. What Steve writes and what the report says is that we’ll have more mobile devices that can get on the Web than we’ll have computers, which is actually a pretty different thing. How different?

Let’s pretend you have one computer in your house and one Wii. In that scenario, 50% of the devices in your house that can access the web are not computers. But do you use your Wii to read Yahoo news? I know I don’t.

Or to push it even further, here’s how my house is set up. Your mileage may vary:

2 computers
1 Wii
3 web-friendly phones
2 iPod Touches
1 Kindle

In this scenario, only 33% of the devices in our house that can surf the Web are computers, but guess what? None of those devices approach the volume of web content consumed by the computers – even the ones – like the iPod Touch – that do it well.

That isn’t to say you shouldn’t be thinking about getting your content on all of these devices. Quite frankly, you have to. But if you go out telling your advertisers that they better be coughing up all kinds of money for mobile sponsorships because that’s where half your traffic is going, well you might have some explaining to do. Probably not in twelve years. But definitely in three.